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Bollinger Bands are widely and successfully used by forex traders worldwide. One of the great joys of having invented an analytical technique such as Bollinger Bands is seeing what other people do with it. While there are many ways to use Bollinger Bands in the forex market, following are a few rules that serve as a good beginning point.
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Bollinger Bands provide a relative definition of high and low.
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That relative definition can be used to compare price action
and indicator action to arrive at rigorous buy and sell
decisions.
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Appropriate indicators can be derived from momentum, volume,
sentiment, open interest, inter-market data, etc.
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Volatility and trend have already been deployed in the
construction of Bollinger Bands, so their use for confirmation
of price action is not recommended.
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The indicators used for confirmation should not be directly
related to one another. Two indicators from the same category do not increase confirmation.
Avoid colinearity.
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Bollinger Bands can also be used to clarify pure price
patterns such as M-type; tops and W-type bottoms,
momentum shifts, etc.
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Price can, and does, walk up the upper Bollinger Band and down
the lower Bollinger Band.
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Closes outside the Bollinger Bands can be continuation signals,
not reversal signals--as is demonstrated by the use of Bollinger Bands in some very
successful volatility-breakout systems.
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The default parameters of 20 periods for the moving average
and standard deviation calculations, and two standard
deviations for the bandwidth are just that, defaults. The
actual parameters needed for any given market/task may be
different.
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The average deployed should not be the best one for
crossovers. Rather, it should be descriptive of the
intermediate-term trend.
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If the average is lengthened the number of standard deviations
needs to be increased simultaneously; from 2 at 20 periods, to
2.1 at 50 periods. Likewise, if the average is shortened the
number of standard deviations should be reduced; from 2 at 20
periods, to 1.9 at 10 periods.
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Bollinger Bands are based upon a simple moving average. This
is because a simple moving average is used in the standard
deviation calculation and we wish to be logically consistent.
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Be careful about making statistical assumptions based on the
use of the standard deviation calculation in the construction of the bands. The sample
size in most deployments of Bollinger Bands is too small for statistical significance
and the distributions involved are rarely normal.
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Indicators can be normalized with %b, eliminating fixed thresholds
in the process.
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Finally, tags of the bands are just that, tags not signals. A
tag of the upper Bollinger Band is NOT in-and-of-itself a sell
signal. A tag of the lower Bollinger Band is NOT
in-and-of-itself a buy signal.
John Bollinger, CFA,CMT
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